Will Powell’s Speech Trigger Bitcoin Crash or Rally?

The Federal Reserve’s upcoming FOMC meeting on May 7, 2025, is drawing serious attention from crypto investors. With interest rate decisions and Powell’s speech on the agenda, the market is on edge.

After a long pause following aggressive hikes in 2022–2023, the Fed began cutting rates in late 2024, bringing the current rate to 4.25%–4.50%. Now, with a 94% probability that the Fed will hold rates steady, investors are watching closely. 

Despite strong job numbers, inflation remains slightly high, clouding the timeline for future cuts. Experts say more rate cuts may come later in 2025, but there’s still no clear roadmap.

Volatility Ahead of Powell Speech

Market analyst King Baldwin shared his pre-FOMC outlook on X, pointing to the high odds of no change in interest rates. However, he warns that a hawkish tone from the Fed could send Bitcoin down to a support zone between $91,500 and $92,000.

If Jerome Powell Jerome Powell Jerome Hayden “Jay” Powell is an American attorney and investment banker who has served since 2018 as the 16th chair of the Federal Reserve Finance signals a dovish stance or hints at near-term cuts, Bitcoin could rebound toward the $100,000 mark. Baldwin notes that Core PCE inflation stands at 2.6%, and recession odds are at 60%—both factors keeping investors cautious.

All eyes are now on Powell’s press conference, with hopes for a June rate cut signal.

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No Rate Cut Expected, Says Michaël van de Poppe

Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe believes a rate cut is highly unlikely at this FOMC meeting. He suggests the Fed will stay cautious due to sticky inflation. A surprise cut would shock markets.

Adding to the pressure is Donald Trump Donald Trump Donald Trump is an American former president politician, businessman, and media personality, who served as the 45th president of the U.S. between 2017 to 2021. Trump earned a Bachelor of science in economics from the University of Pennsylvania in 1968. Trump won the 2016 presidential election as the Republican Party nominee against Democratic Party nominee Hillary Clinton while losing the popular vote. As president, Trump ordered a travel ban on citizens from several Muslim-majority countries, diverted military funding toward building a wall on the U.S.–Mexico border, and implemented a family separation policy. Trump has remained a prominent figure in the Republican Party and is considered a likely candidate for the 2024 presidential election President who continues to push for cuts amid rising tariffs. But the Federal Reserve is expected to focus on inflation control rather than bow to political pressure.

Crypto Market Braces for Powell’s Speech

Trump’s aggressive stance on trade and monetary policy is stirring debate about the Fed’s independence. With fiat volatility rising, many investors are turning back to Bitcoin as a hedge.

With Powell’s speech scheduled for May 7, both traditional and crypto markets are bracing for volatility. Analysts are urging traders to avoid leverage and expect short-term turbulence.

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