Will This Week’s CPI Figures Keep Bitcoin on Track to $200,000?

Bitcoin could see a surge toward $200,000 in 2025, analysts say, as markets anticipate key U.S. inflation data and institutional capital flows drive momentum. 

Scheduled for release at 8:30 am ET Wednesday, the December Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to show a year-over-year increase of 2.9% and a monthly rise of 0.3%, according to MarketWatch data.

Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, is projected to grow 0.3% month-over-month.

Anticipated CPI data is critical for understanding inflation trends and how they might influence Federal Reserve monetary policy. 

Lower or stabilizing inflation could prompt the Fed to ease its aggressive higher-for-longer interest rate stance, fostering a risk-on environment favorable to assets like Bitcoin. 

If inflation moderates in line with expectations, it could bolster Bitcoin’s appeal by signaling increased liquidity in financial markets through potential rate cuts, making risk assets more attractive to institutional and retail investors.

Conversely, persistently high inflation could delay monetary easing, tempering Bitcoin’s upward trajectory. Data from the CME FedWatch Tool indicates that traders are divided on the Fed’s rate cut trajectory for the year. 

“The Producer Price Index came in under expectation, albeit still rising; it rose less than expected,” Ryan McMillin, chief investment officer at crypto fund manager Merkle Tree Capital, told Decrypt.

“We could see the same for CPI on Wednesday. That would signal the dollar has probably topped out, and risk assets will get some respite.”

This lines up with Trump’s cabinet being confirmed this week and growing comments from his team about plans to weaken the dollar and lower interest rates—not just short-term rates but also longer-term ones like the 10-year Treasury, which has been rising despite Fed rate cuts, McMillin added.

“That could take a little while to calm equity markets, but bitcoin and crypto look set to move up more immediately as the Trump team officially announce their pro-bitcoin and crypto stance,” he said.

While some anticipate up to two 25 basis point reductions, aligning with the Fed’s recent guidance, a significant portion of traders now believe there may be no rate cuts at all in 2025. 

Recent strength in the U.S. labor market, with December’s unexpected 256,000 job gain, has fueled concerns about inflation staying above the Fed’s 2% target, potentially delaying further easing and creating uncertainty for risk assets, including crypto.

A bullish year ahead?

Rate cuts aside, some still see further growth in a final leg up this year.

In its latest weekly report, CryptoQuant highlighted Bitcoin’s potential to climb between $145,000 and $249,000 by year-end, supported by favorable macroeconomic trends, a pro-crypto U.S. administration, and historical patterns. 

The report also points to growing institutional adoption, with addresses holding 100-1,000 BTC, adding $127 billion in 2024.

“Bitcoin is entering the final year of its four-year cycle, historically a period of significant price increases,” CryptoQuant wrote. Historical trends suggest capital inflows into Bitcoin could reach $520 billion in 2025, building on $440 billion since late 2022. 

With a Market Value to Realized Value ratio of 2.3, Bitcoin remains well below the overheated zone of 3.8-4.0, indicating room for further growth. The ratio compares Bitcoin’s market capitalization to its realized capitalization, helping identify overbought or oversold conditions.

Risks include a potential “sell-the-news” event tied to the U.S. administration’s pro-crypto policies and weak retail participation, which could temper momentum. 

Meanwhile, Wednesday’s CPI data could heavily influence market sentiment, with deviations from expectations likely to affect the Fed’s rate path and Bitcoin’s trajectory, CryptoQuant cautioned.